Beat the Bookies: Week 11

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 15/10/2008

LAST weekend was all about late goals. Wycombe's late equaliser cost Beat the Bookies a handseome win. However Bradford's three late goals against Accrington saved almost as much money and averted a very expensive weekend.

Town were much improved last weekend against Wycombe at Blundell Park and almost won. Their next challenge is if anything though even harder. Exeter have been flying recently: they have won their last three games and scored eight goals in the process. 4/1 is not a generous enough price for a first Town win in our opinion, although a draw at 5/2 may be worthy of consideration, as may be an Asian Handicap at 37/40, which will pay out for an Grimsby win or a draw.

Aldershot v Brentford. Brentford have been excellent this season, and are a well organised side who are hard to beat. They face the short trip to League Two newcomers Aldershot, whose home form is impressive, but they have not won for three games. Brentford 19/10 on the other hand have hardly lost a game this season, yet Aldershot have been made the clear favourites, which feels wrong. The Bees should be able to pick up three points in what is practically a local derby just south of the capital.

Chester v Port Vale. Chester's mini recovery looks to have come to an end, whilst Port Vale have started one of their own since a change of manager, beating Shrewsbury away last week. If the trend continues an away win looks a certainty.

Luton v Accrington Stanley. Luton need to go for a win in every game and this match against Accrington at home should be a definite three points against one of the poorest sides in the league.

Bradford v Gillingham. This looks like one of the best value home wins 5/6 in the division. Gillingham, whilst excellent at Priestfield, do not travel well, and should struggle in front of the enormous crowds at Valley Parade.

Notts County v Macclesfield. Another home banker at a very tempting 10/11. Macclesfield are one of the poorest sides in the league and County should be able to overcome them at Meadow Lane.

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

• Fixed Odds - as per last year
• Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
• The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

• 1. Brentford beat Aldershot (19/10, bet365))
• 2. Port Vale to beat Chester (2/1, Paddy Power)

Recommended Spread Bet

• Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance (14) at www.igsport.com

The Monkey's Bet

• Grimsby to win 3-1 (40/1, bet365)